Modelos de estimación de la probabilidad de negociación informada: una comparación metodológica en el mercado español
David Abad and Antonio Rubia
Determining the degree of informational asymmetry is a major topic in the literature of modern microstructure. In this paper, we review and analyze the suitability of the models for estimating the probability of informed trading [Easley et al., 1996; Nyholm, 2002, 2003]. The empirical analysis is carried out on the Spanish market. We find evidence suggesting that the regime-switching model by Nyhom (2002, 2003) does not provide estimates consistent with the effects of asymmetry. The specific analysis on the Spanish market reveals a higher likelihood of the informed trading for the less-frequently traded assets as a consequence of the dramatic fall in the number of liquidity traders. This issue suggests a strong degree of aversion to the risk of adverse selection.
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